The Production Gap Report — first launched in 2019 — tracks the discrepancy between governments’ planned fossil fuel production and global production levels consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C.

The report represents a collaboration of several research and academic institutions, including input from more than 40 experts. UNEP staff provided guidance and insights from their experience leading other gap reports.

The conclusions of the report are pretty damning:

“Our assessment of the most recent government plans and projections for fossil fuel production reveals that the world’s governments plan on producing around 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with the median 1.5°C-warming pathway, and 45% more fossil fuels than would be consistent with the median 2°C-warming pathway.

The production gap has remained largely unchanged since our 2019 analysis.

The gap remains proportionally largest for coal, even as governments plan small production decreases in aggregate.

Meanwhile, governments plan to increase oil and gas production until at least 2040, leading to large production gaps for these fuels as well.”

The address for UN Production Gap report is: